Tuesday, September 18, 2007

A Housing Slump?

I was told recently that I should be really excited by the housing market right now. The market is in a slump and i'm in a place to purchase a home. The news today reflected a similar notion. The thing that made me laugh was that....well.....it's not really true. There isn't a slump in my area. Maybe a more accurate statement is that areas that have a hard time getting to people to move to them are still having a hard time and big cities that charge 3 or four times the rate they should be charging to buy a house are in a slump. The average small city/ big town like Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill don't exactly fall into these categories. Which sucks for me. In fact houses in these areas are still selling like hotcakes. I've seen everything from 200,000 dollar homes to 1 million dollar homes flying off the market. No slump here. So what makes me wonder is if the nation realizes that there are probably tons of people like me out there wondering where this imaginary slump is happening. It would take twice as much of a slump for me to start to feel like our market is slowing down and similarly for people like me to jump into a house immediately. It should raise concerns for the troubled areas that there is probably more trouble coming than what is already here. This just brings me back to what I have always made comments on. Building all 400-500,000+ homes added to highest loans ever and high divorce rate/single parent families is a disastrous mix. Everyone wants the mega home. The only problem is that a mega home can generally only be supported by a multiple income family. A divorce, high loan rate, or just being single means a small home. In our area a small home is 250,000 or less. In Boston, a small home is probably 450,000 or less. Here is the problem. The difference in salary among regions isn't that much different. Definitely not enough to argue paying 200,000 for the same house in a different environment. So where is the housing slump? Obviously it's in the 450,000 cheap seats as opposed to my area. Where do you go if you are in the slump area. Well why not come here, just sell that 400K+ home and get the same place for 200K+ in the south and use that other money somewhere else. It's an old idea that is picking up more than ever these days. So sure there is a housing slump.....somewhere. Just not here and doubtful there will be one here. I'm not sure that the government understands the imbalance. Cutting rates may persuade a few people but there is a bigger problem. As for me, the single guy living in the booming community. Probably is the best time to buy a house. Not because things are in a slump but because either the other communities will need to have a market disaster of proportions never seen before or this thriving community will need to match up with the other communities(meaning a mega increase in local home values). That's probably more like it. So when discussing the housing "slump" maybe we should reword it to a housing boom in areas like mine and a stagnant period in the once thriving areas. That seems to be a little more accurate in description.
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